Just when you thought it was safe to go outside without a parka, yet another reminder of our latitude is moving in as we speak. A cold front, the leading edge of arctic air, is crossing the area this afternoon. Temperatures will be falling steadily this evening and by daybreak tomorrow, should be within a few degrees of zero. Throw in gusty northwest winds and wind chills will fall to -20 in some areas overnight. The polar plunge will keep afternoon temps under 10 Saturday in most areas, setting the stage for sub-zero lows Sunday morning. As far as snowfall, most of that for the weekend will be light and to our south. The cold will not be as intense as the previous surge, but will last through Monday.
After that, as temperatures moderate, we run the risk of two snowstorms next week. Current model guidance is alarmingly unimpressed with the threat of a major storm here. So why is that "alarming" to me? The track suggested by the models keeps most of the action off to our south. The common error for the models is to forecast these storms too far south, then, as the storms get closer, the models bring them farther north... increasing the threat here. Sticking snows are looming for Tuesday and again Thursday into Friday. Then again the models may be right, and all of the action misses us to the south. If they are wrong, this would be the first significant snowfall for the area in about 2 weeks, so I guess we're overdue!
