Free Fallin'

Greetings to all on this QUIET MONDAY!  But, it will not stay that way.  Looks like it will be a meteorologically exciting week, so let's embrace the science of it all...yeah right!  I must always be mindful that there are those of you who do enjoy the cold and the snow, but it has been my experience that the majority lies on the warm weather, sunny side.  Feel free to discuss, if you care.

So, here are the facts.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY goes in to effect for us at 3pm today and lasts until midnight.  At this point, it looks like there will be widespread accumulations of 2-4" with those of you lucky snow lovers in the northern suburbs possibly getting up to five.  I believe the accumulating snow will end shortly after midnight but by then....

A BLIZZARD WATCH will be in effect from midnight tonight until 9am.  Looks as though the gusty winds will create poor visibility and during the morning rush hour, while it may appear to be snowing heavily, it will actually be the wicked winds just whipping that snow around.  Just when your road gets cleared, here comes the wind to cover it up all over again. 

And if that's not enough, yes, the cold.  Wind chills will be below zero all day tomorrow, and it is quite possible that our wind chills will NOT GET BACK ABOVE ZERO UNTIL THE WEEKEND!  So, in the words of my favorite rocker Tom Petty, FREE FALLIN', temperatures, wind chills and snow!

Tracy

The Good News and the Bad

Looking at the latest computer guidance it looks like the snow will hold off until after 4 or 5pm Monday afternoon so while the second half of the evening commute will be messy the first half might be okay. The bad news is that it now looks like the snow will fall at at pretty good clip from about 6pm to approximately 1am with 2 to 4 inches of total accumulation. Temps will then plummet and wind chills Tuesday will be well below zero. A second Alberta clipper will bring us more significant snow on Wednesday followed by even more frigid air on Thursday and more snow on Friday. Enjoy or endure the week it will certainly be a wintry one.

Phil Schwarz

Nasty Week Ahead

Well let's start with the good news... Today's snow is uneventful. Now for the bad news... the work week looks like a mess of snow and brutal cold. Tomorrow, especially at night, I envision a general 1"-3" snowfall. Evening rush hour will likely witness the onset of the precipitation, so expect some delays. The bigger storm is slated for Wednesday, and this one looks more ominous with each new computer model run. The morning rush might escape the action, but evening rush hour is toast. A high liquid-to-snow ratio means the .40"-.50" of moisture could fluff up to six or more inches of powder... which will be blown around by the massive gush of frigid arctic air following in the wake of the storm. Though the snow will be over Thursday, blowing and drifting snow, coupled with -20 and worse wind chills will make getting around a real pain. Friday starts with temps in the -10 range and will feature another 1"-2" snowfall in the evening as "warmer" air tries to ooze in. Mike Caplan

snow, snow and more snow

It has been an incredibly snowy winter so far with over 36 inches of snow this season. We are now less than 2 inches away from our average snowfall for an entire season. But while we have seen so much snow you don't have to go very far south to get to places that have seen below normal snowfall. In Springfield only 4.2 inches of snow has fallen this winter which is less than half their average seasonal snowfall to date.

While more snow and cold is likely this week there are a few signs that the frigid and active weather will break but not until the last 7 to 10 days of the month. In the meantime, keep the shovel handy and get ready for frigid blast espeically Thursday and Friday. The mercury could dip to 10 below zero.

Record Daily Snowfall for Chicago

Today's 8.4" of snow at O'Hare is a record for the date, and brings the official storm total to a whopping 12.0"! And if you think it seems like it's been snowing incessantly this winter, you're right. Chicago has already seen 36" of snow since December 1st, which is 23.3" above normal. In fact, if it doesn't snow again for the rest of the winter, we will still be have above normal snowfall for the entire December through April period! Oh... and if you think it's NOT going to snow again for the rest of the winter, then you haven't seen our forecasts for the next few days. Accumulating snows are likely, especially Monday. Early estimates suggest a general 2"-4" will swipe the area. Mike Caplan

A Cumbersome Week Lies Ahead

Lots on the weather table this afternoon.  First, the next round of snow.  It looks like snow will be gradually intensifying throughout the afternoon and evening hours.  Several additional inches of snow will fall between this evening and tomorrow midday.  The hard-hit northern burbs (3-6" already) may end up with 6" to 10" before all is said and done. The rest of Chicagoland can expect totals ranging from 2" or less extreme south, to about 6" in the I-88 corrdior into the city. 

Next up, a seemingly endless series of "clippers" diving down on us from the northwest in coming days.  Each one will drag down colder air from the north, and produce a swath of snow as it passes by.  The strongest clipper appears to be on tap for the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame, with another 2"-5" likely. The worst of the cold is coming Thursday into Friday now, although Tuesday and Wednesday will be no thermal picnic.  Most of next week will find us grimacing at the mercury between 10 above and 10 below zero.  Wind chills will be frequently in the -20 range from Tuesday on. 

The message here is simple.  Winter is with us full bore this upcoming week (at least).  As a side note, as an animal lover, I remind dog owners to look after their pets during this upcoming cold snap.  Make sure they have a place to stay warm, and access to plenty of fresh water!

Just a little lunch break...

Happy Friday to all!  As I mentioned this morning, it's not over til' it's over!  Yes, the snow is taking a little lunch-break for MOST OF us, but in the northern suburbs, you still have that stubborn light snow continuing for you...but not to worry, you'll just take your lunch-break a little later than the rest of us.  While we wait for the low in the Central Plains to move east, anticipate occasional flurries and light snow showers this afternoon.

The additional accumulating snow starts in the Chicago area during the early part of the evening.  By that I mean, between 5 & 7pm it should begin!  If you plan on being out late this evening or into the wee hours of the morning, visibility will be compromised at times, by moderate to heavy snow.  This system snow should wind down during the late Saturday morning hours. By that time, we will have storm totals between 4 & 9", though lesser amounts are advertised far south.  I still see persistent flurries thru the day on Saturday.  It will be cold and blustery, but just a little "warm-up" for what is coming next week.  Get ready for The Big Chill...!!!  For you lovers of extreme cold, this extended forecast is for you.

The Latest on Friday's Storm

After scanning the evening computer model runs, all signs continue to point to a lengthy snowstorm for Chicagoland starting just before dawn. Liquid estimates ranging from about .40" to .60" would equate to a 4" to 8" snowfall, drawn out over 24+ hours.

But wait... will there be more? This afternoon, Phil Schwarz and I discussed the possibility that northeast winds near the end of the event might lift some moisture off Lake Michigan. The setup is not ideal however. While the wind direction is optimal for Illinois lake effect snow, NNE, it might be too strong to pick up as much moisture as winds in the 5-15 mph range. The key temperature difference between the lake water and the air above it is also not as great as I'd like to see to generate prolific snow showers. Phil and I agree that this bears watching, and at the very least, a little lake moisture could enhance the snowfall totals through Saturday.

Winter Weather Advisory Coming

I just got word from the NWS that a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for the Chicago area tomorrow.  Don't be surprised if that gets ramped up to a winter storm watch or warning before the flakes are done flyin'!

Friday Fracas

What looked like an innocuous 1" to 3" snow system for Friday a few days ago is looming large on this forecaster's proverbial radar this morning.  The track of the storm is expected to be far enough south that virtually all of the precipitation is going to fall as snow, and the snow may last well into Saturday morning.  This could mean a widespread 6" to 8" snowfall, with only areas well south of I-80 having to contend with 3" amounts.  I fully expect the National Weather Service to issue a Winter Weather Advisory at the very least for this upcoming event by the time I deliver my 4pm forecast.  I wouldn't be surprised if a Winter Storm Watch is issued either.  Point is, travel will be disrupted especially tomorrow evening, and after the plows and shovels get a workout Saturday, we will have to gird ourselves for part B of the winter hammer... the cold.  If all of this snow materializes, temperatures next week, which were already looking harsh, will be even lower.  I'm even more convinced we see a day next week where the mercury never rises above zero, and a -10 is attainable Tuesday night.  Mike Caplan