Never Predict a Record

I have an unspoken rule of forecasting which I'd like to talk about!!!  Never predict a record breaking high or low temperature.  Here's why... There's a reason why that record is there in the first place.  It's never been that cold or hot before or since in our recorded weather keeping!  What makes you think it will ever be colder or hotter?  It's THE RECORD for crying out loud!!!  So it should come as no surprise that this morning the low at O'Hare failed to eclipse the record low of 47 for August 31.  49 is chilly... but it's no record.  Of course many other locations dipped deep into the 40s this morning, and I suspect the same overnight into Tuesday morning.  Tomorrow's record low is 45 set back in 1949 by the way.  I think I'll forecast 44, cuz like I've always said, records were made to be broken!!!

Mike

AUGUST 31, 2009

Monday morning greetings!  And HAPPY HALLOWEEN!  WHAT?  As I was in the grocery store this weekend, I noticed them starting to stock aisles with Halloween candy.  Plus, I noticed signs for "Halloween stores" coming soon.  It was only fitting that our weather FELT more like typical Halloween weather over the weekend. 

So far, this morning, we have been close to the record low of 47 degrees, but it appears the numbers are now going up.  So while no record broken this morning, we have another chance tonight!  The record for September 1 is 45 degrees set back in 1949.  I say if you're going to get close, let's just break the record ;)

Have a blessed day.

Tracy

FRIDAY, AUGUST 28, 2009

Happy Friday.  Hope this will be a nice day for you, but for reasons other than the weather.  While I do have some good news in that the flash-flood threat has diminished for our area, the idea of a nice, summer weekend will not happen in Chicago this weekend. 

In fact, today you can expect lots of cloud cover, with occasional sprinkles and drizzle.  Tomorrow will be one of those chilly, windy days and quite possibly if we get clearing skies overnight Saturday and Sunday, we will be waking up to possible record-challenging cold temperatures. 

On a separate note, yesterday I shared with you a special personal note...the 4th birthday of my baby girl.  But, I recall being in the hospital having her four years ago and experiencing such joy for myself, yet such profound sadness for the people of New Orleans and ALL THE OTHERS AFFECTED BY HURRICANE KATRINA.  Saturday, August 29, will mark the fourth anniversary of the landfall of that devastating hurricane along the Gulf Coast.  My personal thoughts and prayers to all those affected in any way by that tragic hurricane. 

Tracy 

Flash Flood Watch, but...

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for most of the ABC-7 viewing area through late tonight.  So far the rain has not fallen at too quick a rate to create any major problems.  There is another upper air disturbance moving out of Iowa this afternoon which could kick the rainfall into a higher gear, so this will have to be watched.  Most of us have seen rainfall of between 1" and 2" with a few higher amounts.  Genoa, well west of Chicago has picked up more than 4" of rain over the past two days. 

The weekend forecast is still posing some problems.  I am certain it will be unseasonably cool, with highs both days likely to remain mired in the April-like 60s. What I am less certain of is whether the days will be completely dry.  New guidance is hinting at a few showers on Saturday,  and with steep lapse rates in place on Sunday (that's the rate of change between temperatures at the surface and aloft) an isolated shower is also possible.  I'll make a concerted stab at the weekend picture on the news at 4pm. 

Mike

THURSDAY, AUGUST 27, 2009

Good morning....

We begin this day with a FLASH-FLOOD WATCH, which is in effect thru tonight for COOK, DUPAGE, WILL, GRUNDY, LASALLE, DEKALB, KENDALL, KANE, MCHENRY AND LAKE COUNTIES.  Rainfall totals (which began yesterday and thru tonight) may measure between 1-3". 

It will be a rainy morning.  As for this afternoon, there will be times when we will have some drizzle and just when you think, OH MAYBE IT'S ALL OVER, nope...the rain intensity increases.  So, keep the rain gear handy and enjoy some of the vibrant color in your yard which the moisture may be enhancing....

Tracy

P.S.  And a happy birthday to my little baby girl...well, she's a four-year old, but she will always be my baby.  As I write this, it was four years, three hours and 15 minutes ago when we welcomed her into the world.

Heavy Rains Possible

The National Weather Service has placed most of the ABC-7 viewing area under a Flash Flood watch until tomorrow evening.  Additional rainfall of 1" to 3" is likely, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. For maps including radar be sure to check out our weather page at www.abc7chicago.com, and watch our newscasts.  I mention this because I know some of you expected to find instant updates on severe storm and tornado warnings here last week.  While we do our best to keep the blog timely and topical, we are not able to keep up with those warnings on this page during a severe weather event.  That's what the web weather page is for, along with our mothership, ABC-7.  This is a good place to start conversations and have questions about weather answered, as well as learn about general weather trends and potential risks.

Mike

Soggy Wednesday

It's hump day, and getting over it has been a challenge on the roads thanks to a rush hour laden with soaking rains.  Many areas picked up close to or more than 1" of rainfall already, and the wet stuff is far from over.  A few showers will cross the region this afternoon, but a strong upper air disturbance is likely to re-ignite heavier rains and thunder overnight into Thursday.  Then we've got yet another wave slated to come through on Friday with more showers.  The weekend is looking dry, but cool... especially Sunday.  Then there's Danny... the season's newest tropical storm.  It's pointed toward NC and may attain hurricane strength.  That's the bad news.  The good news is that Danny is not forecast to make landfall, instead recurving back into the Atlantic.  High surf may be the biggest impact of Danny this weekend on the East Coast.

Mike

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 26, 2009

Good morning.  It's a soggy start for most of us.  As of this writing, NW Indiana and the far southern suburbs have been exempt from the rain.  You will have the opportunity for some rain later on. For the afternoon, many dry hours in Chicago plus the west and north suburbs.  The rain still lingers into the afternoon in the far southern suburbs and in NW Indiana.

As I mentioned yesterday, our weather over the next several days will be determined by the location of a front, which is going to become stationary.  With waves moving along the front, rain will be in and out, in and out for at least the next 48 hour period.

Tracy

TUESDAY, AUGUST 25, 2009

Greetings on a beautiful Tuesday morning.  Skies are mainly clear this Tuesday and we're off and running with temperatures in the 60s.  Expect partly to mostly sunny skies today with high temperatures in the mid 80s.  After that, it's an abrupt turnaround....it appears that a front may decide it likes it here in our region, so it may park itself for a while.  For us that means, we may have lots of clouds, showers and cooler than average temperatures into the weekend.  I will keep you posted.

Tracy

90s in short supply

So far this year, we've had only 4 days of 90-degree weather. Yesterday I looked into how many times we've hit 90 after August 23rd, and discovered that in the past ten years, it's happened just 22 times.  That means that in a typical year, we might expect about 2 more days of 90-degree warmth.  I have no 90s in the forecast for this week, so that means it'll be September before we could hit 90.  This afternoon on the 4pm news, I'll look at the lastest date we've had a 90-degree high in the past 10 years.  Poitn is, time is running out for "hot" weather in '09. That said, tomorrow will be quite warm, with mid to possibly upper 80s possible.

Mike