90-Degree Update

In a typical year, we can expect about 17 days of 90-degree temperatures in Chicago.  This year, O'Hare has hit 90 or better only four times, most notably during a three-day stretch of 94s starting June 23rd.  The sole remaining outpost of "hot" weather was the 91 we reached on August 9th.  Because I was bored this morning, and the dog woke me up too early, I spent a few quality minutes doing some research into how often we hit 90 degrees after September 10th.  Since 1999, it's happened only 3 times... and all three took place in one year, 2005.  We actually managed to string together 4 straight 90s between Sep. 10 and 13 that year, so those account for the 3 90s AFTER September 10th.  I see no chance for a 90-degree temperature in the next 10 days at least, so it seems quite likely that we will finish the year with only 4 90+ days.  True, 90s have occurred as late as October 6, but we all know how I feel about forecasting records!  

At least warm-weather fans can be somewhat pleased that upper 70s and low 80s will be hanging on well into next week.  Our morning bouts of fog and haze will continue and skies will range from partly to mostly sunny during the next 7 days.  As far as rain is concerned, there won't be much, if any.  The pattern has been very dry for the last two weeks, with a meager .05" at O'Hare since August 29th.  As I stated here and on the mothership all week, a few spotty showers can't be ruled out, so consider your lawn lucky if it gets under one.

Mike

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2009

Foggy greetings to you.  We begin this day with a dense fog advisory throughout the area until 9am.

Otherwise, look for a mix of clouds and sun today with high temperatures around 80 degrees.  There's about a 10% chance of a shower.  This almost perfect weather coincides with a fantastic event in the Chicago area this week.  The BMW Championship at Cog Hill in Lemont.  (Full disclosure -- I LOVE GOLF.)  Recently the folks at Cog did a tremendous amount of work to Dubsdread and I hear that it's in terrific shape for this marquee event. 

So, if you are headed out to Dubs this weekend, enjoy the weather, enjoy the golf, enjoy being with the terrific fans, and say hello to Tiger for me!

Tracy

A bit cloudier today

The same pesky trough of low pressure lurking out to east will spin some low cloud cover into the area once again today.  I expect at least some sunny breaks through the clouds and haze, so it won't be a totally overcast day.  There may also be a few widely scattered showers this afternoon, but the general dry and mild trend will soar right on through the upcoming weekend.  Look for highs between 75-82 for the next 7 days, with the possible exception of along the lakefront, where onshore winds will knock readins down a few degrees. 

Mike

Not perfectly rain-free, but...

We are still locked in a fairly stagnant weather pattern with very little day-to-day variation.  We wake up to areas of fog, the sun comes out, a few clouds bubble up, and temps warm well into the 70s.  That will remain the theme through this upcoming weekend.  But everything is in the details, right?  There are a couple of "fronts" on the way. One Thursday, the other over the weekend.  However, these are wimpy fronts, with very little cold air behind them, and very little oomph to fire up widespread precipitation either.  Consequently, my 7-day forecast will have no rainfall symbols in it at 4pm.  That's my way of saying that ALMOST all of the time and over ALMOST the entire area, rainfall will be nonexistent.  Might there be a shower here and there?  Yes. But the flavor of the next 7 days will be warm and dry.

Mike

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2009

School days...school days!  While some children have been in school for several weeks, many Chicago Public School students began the 2009-2010 school year this morning.  Each morning, I'll be sure to provide you with the bus-stop forecast.  This will give parents and children and idea of what to expect when venturing out to the bus-stop.

This morning, some of you had to navigate your way thru a thick fog and that fog has been quite stubborn along the lakefront.  This afternoon, expect times of partial sunshine and times with thick clouds.  And a rogue shower can't be ruled out for the day either.  But, most children coming home from school today should not need rain gear.

I expect a rather foggy, hazy start to our Wednesday, also.   

Tracy

Labor Day

So far, the holiday weekend has featured mainly pleasant weather, with the notable exception of a few spotty showers yesterday morning which muddled an otherwise dry forecast.  Very few locations had more than a few hundredths of an inch and more than an hour's worth of rainfall.  For today, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with temps between 72 near the lake and 80 south and west of Chicago setting the stage for a terrific closeout to the holiday weekend.  An elongated trough of low pressure is still lurking off to our east, and if any rain does fall in the ABC-7 viewing area today, it will be confined well south and/or east of the city.  The rest of the week looks fairly warm and rain-free. However, almost any day could find an isolated shower popping over a small portion of the area. Perhaps the best chances of that will be Thursday, then even more likely on Saturday.  Models are waffling on an expected crash of termperatures this weekend.  What had looked like 60s now looks like low to mid 70s. Stay tuned.

Mike

Forecasting extreme weather for Chicago

 The weather this past week has been very quiet,uneventful and frankly boring, This pattern won't last for long and eventually we will be facing some sort of inclement weather be it heavy rain, snow storms record cold or heat. So how do you forecast in these situations? The crux of most forecasts are based on computer models, which there are about a half a dozen that I look at, with two of these models handling weather events within 48 hours especially well. Satellite and radar data is also very useful in forecasting. Normally you also want to take in to consideration the normal climate for the time of the year. You don't want to forecast 80° for a day in January or 30° for what looks like a chilly day in July but there are those cases where it does look like it will be colder or hotter than it has ever been before on a specific date. A few daily records are set nearly every year and in some years you can see upwards of a dozen records. This is why I try to base my forecast on as much science as possible and leave the speculation out. If the forecast turns out to be wrong so be it but I find that making my forecast this way usually leads me in the correct direction even if that does mean forecasting a record event.

 No records are coming in the next several days as it looks like the temps will stay close to normal

Phil

SEPTEMBER 4, 2009 - FULL MOON FEVER

Good morning.  Are you familiar with Tom Petty's CD FULL MOON FEVER?  Well, I suppose it could be perfect accompaniment to that gorgeous full moon in our sky these days.  Yesterday I mentioned that this month's full moon is being referred to as the CORN MOON.  Here's a fun link for you if you're curious about more FULL MOON NAME trivia.

http://www.space.com/spacewatch/090109-ns-full-moon-names-2009.html

I hope you have a wonderful and safe holiday weekend.

Tracy

Same old same old...

A rather stagnant weather pattern has locked Chicago under a string ridge of high pressure all week long. That is keeping any potential rain makers at bay. Yesterday's computer models were hinting that the ridge might yield to a disturbance on Labor Day. I thought the ridge will deflect that low to our south, ensuring a dry holiday. Now the computer models are emphatically in agreement so my confidence is bolstered. I still expect some haze and fog as we head into the weekend. Temps should also inch toward 80 this weekend.

Mike

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2009

Good morning. 

There is a little patchy fog around the area this morning, but the broken record titled OUR FORECAST keeps playing.  We will continue singing the same sunny tune for the next several days!  And that moon will be bright and beautiful over Chicago tonight.  In fact, the name of tonight's full moon is the CORN MOON!   Enjoy the bright light both day and night!

Tracy