Wet and Windy

It will come as no surprise that the rains are here.  A slow-moving area of low pressure is drawing ample gulf moisture into our area.  That, coupled with an influx of chilly air behind a cold front slicing through Chicago as of mid-day, will produce a period of raw weather right into Saturday.  It looks like the heaviest rain will fall tonight.  Before it all winds down late Saturday, many of you will have gotten 2" or so of rainfall in your neighborhood. Because it will fall over such a long duration, flooding concerns are minimal.  Saturday will be the coolest day of the next 7, with highs only in the 40s.  While temps will rebound somewhat early next week, all signs point to a strong charge of cold air just in time for Halloween.

Mike

El Nino and the winter outlook

An El Nino ocean pattern is setting up in The Pacific Ocean which could have a major impact on our weather this winter. El Nino is when the the waters of the Western Pacific near the equator turn abnormally warm. The added heat and moisture from the warm ocean effects the jet stream and frequently brings heavy precipitation to Southern California, Texas and much of the southeast.

The extra energy in the southern branch of the jet stream usually keeps the coldest air well to our north up in Canada. There are other factors that can influence our winter weather but it is likely we will see temperatures average above normal for this winter especially during January and February.

Lunar Impact

Tomorrow morning, NASA's LCROSS spacecraft will slam into the Cabeus crater on the moon.  The event won't be visible from Chcagoland telescopes due to cloud cover, but NASA TV will broadcast the event live.  Here's the link: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html

The two impacts will take place starting at 6:31 a.m. Chicago time.

Mike

Calm between two storms

After a night of 45-50+ mph wind gusts which knocked power out in a few places, today's weather is positively benign. Sunshine and temps near 60 won't last long however, as the next storm is already targeting the Midwest for a rainy Thursday.  I expect rain to break out most heavily south of Chicago, but clouds and showers will make for a grey day tomorrow.  Then the big question mark remains for the weekend into early next week.  The US computer model is finally beginning to see the magnitude of the cold on the way, so my earlier and unwavering belief that highs will only be in the 40s Sunday and Monday looks justified.  There is some talk of snow in certain circles early Monday morning, but I'm unwilling to sound that alarm.  Looks like cold rain to me, which hopefully will not douse the Columbus Day parade downtown.

Mike

The recent chill

Though chilly weather in early October is not unusual our current bout with below normal temperatures is unique in that it's going to last for such a long time. For the past nine days in a row temperatures have been well below normal and with a strong cold front expected to move through the area by Friday the coolest weather is yet to come.

 Looking at the latest computer guidance much of the weekend will be dry and chilly but things become a bit more interesting by Sunday night. A minor disturbance is expected to pass overhead and bring us some light precipitation. The only question is will the atmosphere be cold enough for it to snow. We look at several variables to determine precipitation type and most of these parameters are right at the cut-off for rain/snow. With temperatures falling through the 40s and into the 30s Sunday night most if not all of the moisture should fall as rain but don't be suprised to see a flake or two early Monday morning.

 In any case, the cooler than normal weather should continue through most if not all of next week.

Stay warm, Phil

Coldest air of the season in sight

An outbreak of bona fide cold air is poised to invade the Great lakes this weekend and beyond.  Get the heavier coats out, but I think the snow tires can wait for a while longer!  The jet stream is going to buckle to our south as a ridge of warmer air takes hold out west.  That will allow a dump of Canadian air to spill into Chicagoland, threatening the first hard freeze of the season.  If that occurs, it would be pretty much on schedule for climatological normals.  I will point out that the principal US medium range computer model, often slow to catch on to big thermal moves 5-7 days out, is still clinging to hopes that highs this weekend and into early next week will reach the lower 50s. I think it's out to lunch.  I see a couple of days within the next 7 that don't hit 50, and might even have lows in the upper 20s away from downtown.  So the game is on, as I take on the GFS computer model once again! (I know, you all hope I'm wrong and it doesn't get that cold!)

Mike

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2009

Good morning!  As I sit here and listen to our coverage of Chicago's bid for the 2016 Olympics, I really am reminded of what a beautiful city this is...NO MATTER what the weather.  And as a meteorologist, I certainly love the change of seasons.  (although I do have my favorite ;)  What is your favorite? 

Now, if you're interested in knowing more about the weather and the "behind the scenes of the National Weather Service," they are having an open house which might be intriguing for you.  Here is a link to their website which will give you more details.  Have a wonderful weekend!

Tracy

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13718&source=0

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2009

Well, it's a good thing I shared Jennifer's advice with you yesterday since many of you woke up to temperatures below 40 degrees this morning. And for most of you, this is a bit too early to have a frost.  In fact, here is a link to the National Weather Service website.  Recently they created a very nice map depicting the average arrival of frost in our region. 

Tracy

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=31389&source=0