A little more than 3 months ago, I took an unpopular stand here and on TV, banking against NOAA's blanket El Nino winter prediction. Their forecast for us called for above-normal temperatures and what would have basically amounted to a normal snowfall season between December and February, which is known as meteorological winter. I relied on other indices, including the PDO and AO to deliver what I called "a cold and bold" winter to Chicago. What we got was the 6th snowiest winter season ever (52.4") and 3 months of slightly colder-than-normal temperatures... not the mild and uneventful winter El Ninos typically bring us here. Snowfall in December and February was particularly heavy... both months saw more than 20" dumped on Chicagoland. In fact, 70 of the 90 days this winter had at least one inch of snow on the ground in Chicago... that's the 4th most ever. 1978-79 takes top honors with ALL 90 DAYS that winter buried under at least 1" of snow. There were a few thermal oddities here this winter. First of all, we had only one day of 50-degree temperatures... December 1st when it hit 55. We usually have 6 days of 50-degree warmth during winter. We also had only 6 days above 40. That's the 4th fewest ever! 18 is about average. On the flipside, despite the colder temps, we had only one day of sub-zero chill. On January 3rd, it hit -1. That's unusual. In fact, a close inspection of temperatures this winter reveals that much of our thermal shortcomings were due to abnormally cold highs. Low temperatures were held up, in part, due to extensive cloud cover.
So now we enter March and begin meteorological Spring. Flurries will fall from a largely overcast sky, as temperatures hover in the mid 30s the next two days. Indeed a "warmup" is on the way later this week, but don't break out the Bermuda shorts just yet. I'm only forecasting highs to poke into the low and mid 40s by this weekend. The normal highs this time of year are between 40-42, so this doesn't look like a remarkable March heatwave! Still, it will feel warmer, the snow will be melting, and there's no question but that the worst of winter is behind us. Sure, it can still snow impressively in March. But March snows don't stick around for long and brutally cold air is unlikely. With the Chicago Flower and Garden Show just around the corner, it's time to get mentally primed for Spring!
Mike
